中國(guó)網(wǎng)站品牌欄目（頻道）
今年奧斯卡大熱的影片《黑天鵝》不但讓女主角攬得小金人，也讓觀眾看到了藝術(shù)家創(chuàng)作角色過(guò)程的艱辛。不過(guò)，我們今天要說(shuō)的這個(gè)“黑天鵝事件”跟這部電影可沒(méi)什么關(guān)系。
Black swan is the event that is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact.
“黑天鵝”事件指突然發(fā)生并且產(chǎn)生巨大影響的事件。
The term black swan was a Latin expression—its oldest known reference comes from the poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan."
“黑天鵝”是一個(gè)拉丁短語(yǔ)，其最早的出處是詩(shī)人尤文納爾（譯者注：尤文納爾為羅馬諷刺派詩(shī)人）在詩(shī)中將某個(gè)事物描繪為“世間罕有之鳥(niǎo)，酷似黑天鵝”。
It was used to explain:
這個(gè)表達(dá)用于解釋此類事件的三種性質(zhì)：
1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.
在歷史、科學(xué)、金融以及技術(shù)領(lǐng)域中，這種發(fā)生在正常預(yù)期之外、影響巨大、難以預(yù)知而且罕見(jiàn)的事件所扮演的重要角色。
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) .
（因其低概率的特點(diǎn)）很難用科學(xué)手段計(jì)算出這種罕見(jiàn)事件發(fā)生的可能性。
3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
因心理偏見(jiàn)，使得人們忽視了歷史事件中罕見(jiàn)事件所產(chǎn)生巨大影響的不確定性和未知性。
The rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks are given as examples of Black Swan Events.
因特網(wǎng)的崛起、個(gè)人電腦出現(xiàn)、第一次世界大戰(zhàn)以及911恐怖襲擊均為“黑天鵝事件”的范例。
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